?Editor's Note:

在此全民抗疫的特殊時(shí)期，我們特別開設(shè)了一檔全新欄目——PUP Advisor 話新冠，為書友們分享來(lái)自普林斯頓大學(xué)出版社“中國(guó)學(xué)術(shù)顧問(wèn)理事會(huì)”成員針對(duì)此次新冠肺炎疫情的觀點(diǎn)。

本次第三期分享將帶來(lái)的是國(guó)際知名哲學(xué)家、社會(huì)學(xué)家貝淡寧（Daniel A. Bell）教授最新發(fā)表于《環(huán)球時(shí)報(bào)》的言論文章《貝淡寧、汪沛：疫情之下中國(guó)社會(huì)涌現(xiàn)新生機(jī)》（中文版），以及同步發(fā)表于《南華早報(bào)》South China Morning Post 的英文版 Coronavirus holds up a mirror to China’s problems, and the nation will be the better for it。

伴隨中國(guó)在世界學(xué)術(shù)與思想領(lǐng)域持續(xù)崛起的影響力，自2015年起，普林斯頓大學(xué)出版社開始籌備并組建了由林毅夫、施一公、閻學(xué)通、姚期智、薛瀾、汪暉、貝淡寧、劉禾、鄭永年、謝宇、朱強(qiáng)、顏海平、Martin Kern 這十三位領(lǐng)軍學(xué)者思想家組成的“中國(guó)學(xué)術(shù)顧問(wèn)理事會(huì)”。該理事會(huì)為PUP在中國(guó)的發(fā)展提出戰(zhàn)略性建議，并協(xié)助PUP把中國(guó)頂級(jí)學(xué)術(shù)成果推向世界。

本文作者為山東大學(xué)政治學(xué)與公共管理學(xué)院和復(fù)旦大學(xué)中國(guó)研究院助理研究員汪沛，經(jīng)作者授權(quán)發(fā)布。

中文原文2月19日刊發(fā)于《環(huán)球時(shí)報(bào)》，英文原文2月21日刊發(fā)于 South China Morning Post

兩位作者合著的新作 Just Hierarchy: Why Social Hierarchies Matter in China and the Rest of the World 已于近期由普林斯頓大學(xué)出版社出版。

 

 

中文版全文

最近，中國(guó)社會(huì)深受新冠肺炎疫情侵?jǐn)_。確診病例與死亡病例已經(jīng)大大超過(guò)17年前的SARS，學(xué)校推遲開學(xué)，一些單位、企業(yè)推遲上班、開工，城市難以看到之前車水馬龍的正常生活。但是中國(guó)人自古以來(lái)相信否極泰來(lái)，再艱難的狀況中都孕育著新的可能。

首先，對(duì)于信息的審核和審查有可能將更加科學(xué)。這次疫情中，李文亮醫(yī)生不幸去世引發(fā)輿論關(guān)注。如果業(yè)內(nèi)人士和專家有在專業(yè)范圍內(nèi)自由討論的權(quán)利，那么更多的專家可以在第一時(shí)間了解并且參與研究，或許疫情所造成的損失會(huì)遠(yuǎn)小于現(xiàn)在。政府本身也可以從中受益。就目前而言，專業(yè)部門如果能夠即時(shí)地對(duì)相關(guān)地區(qū)發(fā)布預(yù)警信號(hào)，那么無(wú)論地方政府還是民眾，對(duì)于即將到來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)有更好的準(zhǔn)備。一旦有這種機(jī)制，即便出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題，責(zé)任也會(huì)更加分散。另一方面，政府也可以聽取專家意見著手解決問(wèn)題，使得決策機(jī)制更加迅速、扁平化。對(duì)于專業(yè)而有效的信息，我們需要更為高效和科學(xué)的處理模式，應(yīng)更多鼓勵(lì)行業(yè)內(nèi)專家之間的討論和交流，更多地支持我們的專業(yè)人士和專業(yè)部門，尊重事實(shí)、實(shí)事求是，在可預(yù)見的災(zāi)害到來(lái)之前盡力做好最困難的準(zhǔn)備。

其次，在這次疫情中人們的工作方式也有所改變。上海醫(yī)療救治組專家張文宏呼吁：“現(xiàn)在每個(gè)人都是‘戰(zhàn)士’，你在家里不是隔離，是在戰(zhàn)斗!你覺(jué)得很悶嗎？病毒也要被你‘悶死’了，‘悶’兩個(gè)禮拜。”很多人已經(jīng)自覺(jué)響應(yīng)這一呼吁，在家中開始了工作。在北上廣這種超大規(guī)模城市，平均每次往返通勤時(shí)間大約兩個(gè)小時(shí)左右。對(duì)很多經(jīng)常堵車和擠地鐵的上班族來(lái)說(shuō)，在家辦公可以免于這種折磨。政府一直呼吁減少官僚主義和形式主義，所以一些東西確實(shí)該變變了。眼下，絕大多數(shù)會(huì)議都在網(wǎng)上進(jìn)行，時(shí)間大為縮短，文書工作減少，需要填的表格也更少。一旦疫情結(jié)束，一切歸于正常，具有效率的新習(xí)慣應(yīng)繼續(xù)保持下去。

第三，商界對(duì)高科技的需求將越來(lái)越大。最近和無(wú)人機(jī)有關(guān)的各種視頻都成了網(wǎng)紅爆款。許多城市和農(nóng)村的上空有掛著喇叭的無(wú)人機(jī)飛旋，用各種地方方言花式勸告。在重慶巴南，配備消毒藥劑的工業(yè)級(jí)無(wú)人機(jī)，在人員操作下對(duì)重點(diǎn)防疫區(qū)域展開空中噴灑消毒作業(yè)。除此之外，還有更多對(duì)于智能機(jī)器的需求。在這次抗擊疫情的戰(zhàn)斗之中，許多醫(yī)生、護(hù)士和家庭成員因?yàn)檎疹櫜∪硕艿礁腥?，還有司機(jī)、外賣員和快遞員也都曝露在高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的工作環(huán)境里。將來(lái)，智能護(hù)理機(jī)器人可以幫助照顧病人和年邁的老人;能夠自動(dòng)消毒的無(wú)人駕駛汽車可以將患者送往醫(yī)院;機(jī)器人可以將食品外賣和快遞運(yùn)送給人們?？梢韵胍姡瑹o(wú)論是政府還是私人企業(yè)都會(huì)致力于這場(chǎng)智能革新，未來(lái)也將有大量相應(yīng)的新工作出現(xiàn)。

第四，疫情也推動(dòng)了線上教學(xué)的普及。在山東大學(xué)和復(fù)旦大學(xué)，老師即將在春季學(xué)期通過(guò)直播和錄制的視頻在線授課。對(duì)于老師們，尤其是并不特別擅長(zhǎng)視頻操作的老師來(lái)說(shuō)，這樣的調(diào)整非常痛苦，因?yàn)樗麄冊(cè)谝婚_始需要做更多的準(zhǔn)備工作，但大家知道這些變化是必要的。一旦教師適應(yīng)了這些變化，在線教學(xué)的實(shí)踐將變得更加普遍。好處顯而易見，疾病傳播的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將大幅度降低。學(xué)生和老師也不用花費(fèi)時(shí)間往返于家校，而有更多學(xué)習(xí)和閱讀的時(shí)間。并不是說(shuō)在線教育將取代實(shí)時(shí)教學(xué)，但我們可以大致預(yù)測(cè)，更具創(chuàng)新性的教學(xué)方法將得到更廣泛的普及。

這還有其他益處。當(dāng)今中國(guó)面臨的最大挑戰(zhàn)之一是減少中國(guó)貧富地區(qū)之間的教育不平等，來(lái)自偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)的學(xué)生常常缺乏良好的教育資源和教學(xué)設(shè)施。隨著網(wǎng)絡(luò)在城市和農(nóng)村的普及，在線教學(xué)成為可能。絕大多數(shù)學(xué)生，無(wú)論班級(jí)背景如何，都可從優(yōu)秀教師授課中受益。眼下老師的負(fù)擔(dān)或許是最重的，將來(lái)我們希望人工智能可以幫助回答學(xué)生的疑問(wèn)，從而減輕老師的負(fù)擔(dān)。

同時(shí)，對(duì)于宅在家里的人來(lái)說(shuō)，也可以成為一次學(xué)習(xí)的好機(jī)會(huì)。國(guó)內(nèi)視頻彈幕網(wǎng)站Bilibili匯總了北大、清華、復(fù)旦等多個(gè)大學(xué)人文社科公開課，其中也包括一些非常專精的課程，還有一些和大眾文化緊密相關(guān)的課程。網(wǎng)友們?cè)谡n程中的大量彈幕里相互交流，形成了臨時(shí)的學(xué)習(xí)共同體。在這不得不宅在家中“戰(zhàn)斗”的日子里，看公開課、發(fā)彈幕成為了很多人積極面對(duì)生活的一種方式。

第五，今年春節(jié)假期里，人們不得不和家里人從早到晚面對(duì)面共同生活，這也改變了很多人的人生。有些憤世嫉俗的人預(yù)測(cè)，疫情過(guò)后離婚率將大大提高;有些樂(lè)觀的人預(yù)測(cè)，疫情過(guò)后的九個(gè)月出生率將大幅上揚(yáng)。無(wú)論如何，在疾病面前，對(duì)死亡的恐懼使人們更多地思考生活中真正重要的事情。我們對(duì)瑣碎的事情不那么在意了，因?yàn)楦宄裁词侵匾?，例如好好活著并與親人一起度過(guò)這段時(shí)光。

疫情之下還有助于培養(yǎng)社區(qū)精神。過(guò)去，中國(guó)大城市的居民哪怕門對(duì)門也基本是陌生人。但是，情況正在悄悄發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變。在遭受重創(chuàng)的武漢，志愿者為獨(dú)居的老人帶來(lái)食物和必需品，還有熱心的朋友幫助喂養(yǎng)主人不在家中的寵物。同在一個(gè)社區(qū)，鄰里之間的關(guān)系本來(lái)就應(yīng)該充滿了真實(shí)的互動(dòng)和情感的共鳴，互幫互助、相互鼓勵(lì)使得人們之間的距離更近。在疫情過(guò)去之后，良性互動(dòng)的社區(qū)精神也將是寶貴的社區(qū)財(cái)富。

第六，國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)的支持，將有助于鞏固中國(guó)與其他國(guó)家的關(guān)系。春節(jié)期間，那些成行的中國(guó)游客會(huì)感謝泰國(guó)和柬埔寨等尚未對(duì)中國(guó)游客關(guān)閉邊境的國(guó)家。日本援助中國(guó)的物資上寫著“山川異域、風(fēng)月同天”，一時(shí)之間引起網(wǎng)絡(luò)熱議。很多西方國(guó)家政府和民眾都向中國(guó)和其他受新冠病毒感染的國(guó)家伸出了援手，這些努力克服了過(guò)度自私的民族主義，并為今后開展更多的國(guó)際合作奠定了基礎(chǔ)。

疫情肆虐造成了悲劇，成千上萬(wàn)的家庭深受其擾，尤其那些因此失去親人的家庭。但是災(zāi)難也使我們團(tuán)結(jié)了起來(lái)，相信在民眾、政府和世界友人們的共同努力下，我們最終會(huì)戰(zhàn)勝疫情。在災(zāi)難結(jié)束之后，我們?cè)谂c病毒斗爭(zhēng)的過(guò)程中積累的有益經(jīng)驗(yàn)也將保留下來(lái)。

英文版全文

Here in China, it is hard to be optimistic. Hundreds of people are dying from a new and scary virus, schools are closed and workplaces are largely deserted. It is China’s worst crisis in decades. We pray for the resumption of “normal” life as soon as possible. 

But the Book of Changes – China’s foundational text for both Confucianism and Taoism – reminds us that the most difficult circumstances also give rise to positive changes.

Positive trends are already under way. We must resist wishful thinking, but there are good reasons to think that long-wished-for changes can be consolidated after the crisis blows over. The most obvious trend is the demand for more freedom of speech.

The case of Dr Li Wenliang has generated widespread outrage on social media. In late December, Li alerted colleagues to the new virus, mainly doctors at high risk of infection, only to be warned by local authorities not to spread rumours. Later, he succumbed to the same virus and died.

Chinese dissidents have long called for more freedom of speech. 

Journalists and artists have felt frustrated by increasing constraints on their work. In academic disciplines such as political science, the space to publish academic works in Chinese has been shrinking. But the rest of society did not seem to notice increased censorship.

However, Li’s fate has galvanised public opinion in a new and forceful way. There will be strong and almost overwhelming social pressure for more freedom of speech in the future. The government needs to adapt: at the very least, it will think twice before censoring experts who disseminate their research and express worries to their colleagues.

Why should the government respond to such calls? The government itself can benefit from more freedom of speech. As it stands, political leaders are blamed for everything that goes wrong in China because only “officially” approved views are expressed. With more openness, the responsibility will be more diffuse and the government can help to fix things and deal with them efficiently before they explode.

The second positive trend is forceful recognition of the need for less bureaucracy and formalism. In recent years, China’s public officials have become ultracautious, largely due to the anti-corruption campaign. The campaign has reduced corruption in government. But the means employed – harsh punishment for hundreds of thousands of officials – created an environment where public officials are afraid to act. It is safer to keep one’s head down than to risk getting it chopped off.

At the start of the outbreak, local authorities in Wuhan failed to disclose information in a timely manner, delaying measures that could have contained the epidemic. Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang blamed legal restrictions imposed by central authorities: “As a local government, we may disclose that information only after we are given permission to do so.”

The delay is likely to have cost hundreds of people their lives. If the corrupt official was the bane of the Chinese public before the anti-corruption campaign, today – as a direct response of the Wuhan crisis – it is the do-nothing official who blindly sticks to the rules and cares for nothing more than pleasing the higher-ups.

Clearly, there is a need to wind down the anti-corruption campaign, and to emphasise moral self-regulation rather than fear of punishment. The anti-corruption drive had, indeed, been winding down in the past year or so. But recent events have exposed the problem for all to see, speeding up the demand for change. Talented local officials should be encouraged to innovate and experiment rather than err on the side of ultraconservatism.

In universities, there will be strong pressure to reduce bureaucracy and formalism. The obsession with lengthy meetings is a source of aggravation for many academics. There is a trade-off between meetings designed to ensure consensual decision-making and the need for efficiency, with a clear need to rebalance towards the latter.

Officially, the government calls for less bureaucracy and less formalism. But such words have had little effect till now. The joke is that documents calling for less formalism only serve to create more formalism. Things are finally changing. In universities, meetings are now online, there is less paperwork, and the meetings take less time.

We can hear calls of relief at our own universities, and we have good reason to think habits of efficiency will be maintained after the medical scare is over.

The most important positive change, perhaps, is increased recognition of the need to fix problems at home rather than scapegoat outsiders. Before the epidemic, it was easy to blame outsiders for China’s problems. The Trump administration’s hostility to China played into the hands of ultranationalists at home.

Notwithstanding the circulation of some conspiracy theories, it is obvious that the current crisis is largely home-made. Since the public health crisis, excessive nationalism has been curbed in China.

International support for China’s plight helps to cement ties with other countries. China is grateful to countries such as Thailand and Cambodia that have not closed their borders to Chinese visitors. Even less-than-friendly countries have been helping.

Japan sent deliveries of masks to China, accompanied by a moving poem that expresses the idea that China and Japan share the same “gentle breeze and bright moonlight”. Canada has won praise for sending medical equipment and not closing its doors to Chinese passport holders.

Of course, it is always possible that embattled leaders will launch a war to distract attention from problems at home. But they are no longer guaranteed the people’s support. More likely, leaders will recognise the need for more international cooperation to tackle global challenges such as climate change, the regulation of nuclear weapons, and, of course, global pandemics.

The coronavirus epidemic is a tragedy, not least for the lives lost. We – the people, the government, the whole world – should do our best to end the crisis as soon as possible. But with the bad has also come some good.

作者簡(jiǎn)介：

貝淡寧& 汪沛 

 

貝淡寧（Daniel A. Bell），國(guó)際知名哲學(xué)家、社會(huì)學(xué)家，生于加拿大，曾任清華大學(xué)蘇世民書院教授，現(xiàn)為山東大學(xué)政治學(xué)與公共管理學(xué)院院長(zhǎng)。

汪沛，復(fù)旦大學(xué)中國(guó)研究院助理研究員，與貝淡寧合著的新作 Just Hierarchy: Why Social Hierarchies Matter in China and the Rest of the World 已于近日由普林斯頓大學(xué)出版社出版。

本文作者為山東大學(xué)政治學(xué)與公共管理學(xué)院和復(fù)旦大學(xué)中國(guó)研究院助理研究員汪沛，經(jīng)作者授權(quán)發(fā)布。

中文原文2月19日刊發(fā)于《環(huán)球時(shí)報(bào)》，英文原文2月21日刊發(fā)于 South China Morning Post